POLLING LATEST – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  A new poll confirms the dramatic slip of Ben Carson, who hasn't seemed up to speed on foreign policy, which has come to the fore as perhaps the number one issue, following the Paris attacks.  From ABC News: 

A new national poll out today shows 2016 presidential candidate Ben Carson falling from the top of the race for the Republican nomination amidst voters' doubts about his experience and the strength of his leadership.

The neurosurgeon garners 16 percent support in a new Quinnipiac University poll released today, dropping 7 percentage points in the last month to trail frontrunner Donald Trump by double-digits.

Trump garnered 27 percent support, while Sen. Marco Rubio took 17 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz earned 16 percent. All other GOP candidates earned 5 percent or less. Carson had been neck-and-neck for the lead with the real estate mogul in early November.

But now, he's locked in a battle with Rubio and Cruz, both of whom are seeing their highest support in months.

An increased focus on terrorism and foreign affairs after last month's tragic attacks in Paris has prompted a new chapter of the campaign. Only 42 percent of Republican voters now say Carson has the right experience to be president, plummeting from 64 percent just four weeks ago.

And only six in 10 say he has strong leadership qualities -- down from 76 percent of Republicans in early November. But his fall has even affected other areas: Carson has also seen double-digit drops in areas like honesty and trustworthiness and overall favorability, where Carson had been sky high.

COMMENT:  The race is now playing out as many had predicted.  On the one hand, there is a contest between Trump and Carson for "king of the outsiders."  It is clearly being won by Trump.  On the other hand, there's a contest for "king of the insiders," between Rubio and Cruz.  Still no decision, but the winner of the "insider" contest will battle Trump for the nomination.

The shakeout is coming.  The other candidates are fading.  Chris Christie might make a good showing in New Hampshire, but I doubt if he has legs anywhere else.  Jeb Bush simply can't gain traction.  Maybe he seeks a track somewhere, but I certainly don't see it.

It's an exciting race.  The Dem race is a sleeper, unless Hillary gets nailed by the FBI.

December 2,  2015